Where Is Population Growth Actually Heading?
Demographics matter. An aging society, fewer children, less workers, immigration, to name a few, are likely to shape our future in ways we cannot predict. There is much uncertainty, exemplified by mixed messages regarding the global population. Some estimates have us reaching 11 billion people by the year 2100 — with most of that growth coming from Africa and some countries in Asia. Studies have now emerged with significantly less growth. A recent article describes one such study.
A new model has predicted that Earth’s population is likely to decrease in all scenarios across the next century and will peak nowhere near the 11 billion previously forecast.
Ben Turner — World’s population could plummet to 6 billion by the end of the century, study suggests
A study by the Club of Rome predicts that if current trends continue, world population will peak at 8.6 billion in the middle of the century and then decline by 2 billion by the end of the century. Emerging scenarios in the next two decades are likely to alter any population projections, making it near impossible to place faith in these estimates. Expanding education — specifically for women — has played a role in decreasing fertility rates historically. A reimagining of education could therefore have a considerable impact on fertility, especially in low-income countries. An aging society is detrimental if it exacerbates a fall in working age population. But what if we live much longer, healthier lives? Do we necessarily leave the workforce? If we do live much longer, we likely impact those population projections. What about eliminating fatalities via car accidents as we roll out autonomous driving. The potential is there to significantly reduce the death toll associated chronic disease. Too many children die needlessly today, what if we addressed the underlying reasons? With the impact cancer and heart disease have on mortality, progress here is very impactful. Longevity in recent years has declined in some countries due to deaths of despair. What if brain science leads us towards solutions to these challenges?
On the other side of this conversation are drivers of lower population growth. Fear of a third world war has entered the dialog. What are the possible impacts of geopolitical tensions? Extreme events like pandemics and weather-related tragedies are ramping and not expected to diminish. Climate change is a wildcard that may indeed have considerable impact. All this to say that population growth will be influenced by several unknowns — just like most scenarios today. Watch the video below to see one projection of population growth — both historically and into the future.
Originally published at http://frankdiana.net on April 4, 2023.
