The General-Purpose Technology Evolution Framework
General purpose technologies, from the steam engine to electricity, have historically followed a predictable evolutionary path. Each GPT begins at the status quo, disrupting established ways of operating. Next, it moves to point solutions, where its application enhances specific areas without fundamentally transforming broader systems. Over time, these point solutions give way to broader applications, where the technology begins to reshape processes on a larger scale. Finally, the journey culminates in system-level change, where the technology redefines the way society, industries, and systems function as a whole.
Electricity offers a classic example. Initially, it was applied as a point solution to replace the steam engine, maintaining the status quo of centralized shafts powering machines. However, it eventually moved into broader applications, where individual motors replaced the central shaft, offering flexibility and efficiency. Finally, electricity enabled system-level change, revolutionizing entire factory systems and layouts, transforming productivity across industries. This journey spanned approximately 40 years.
AI’s Journey Through the Emergency Room
Now, let’s consider artificial intelligence as a modern GPT and its potential journey through the healthcare system, particularly in emergency rooms.
Point Solutions
In its initial phase, AI enhances specific outcomes. Imagine an emergency room where a patient arrives with symptoms that could indicate a heart attack. A doctor must quickly determine whether the patient is in immediate danger. In this scenario, AI acts as a point solution: it processes vast datasets and patient information to improve the accuracy of diagnosis. If the patient is having a heart attack, AI reduces the risk of misdiagnosis or delayed treatment. If not, it prevents unnecessary admissions and costs. This phase mirrors electricity replacing the steam engine — AI doesn’t fundamentally change the process but optimizes specific outcomes.
Broader Applications
In the next phase, AI expands its role. Beyond diagnosing a heart attack, it determines the best course of action. Should the patient undergo surgery, be admitted for observation, or be sent home with prescribed medication? Here, AI optimizes both patient care and administrative efficiency, balancing human and resource needs. Like electricity enabling independent motors in machines, AI begins to reshape healthcare processes more broadly.
System-Level Change
The final phase represents a paradigm shift. In this future scenario, the concept of an emergency room as we know it may disappear. AI, integrated into homes via wearables or other diagnostic tools, evaluates patients in real time. If no immediate danger is detected, unnecessary trips to the ER are avoided, alleviating strain on healthcare systems. If a heart attack is detected, AI directs the patient to a specialized cardiac facility, bypassing the traditional ER altogether. This shift is analogous to the transformation of factory systems by electricity — it represents a reimagining of how healthcare is delivered.
Accelerated Timeline for AI
While it took electricity 40 years to complete its journey, the consensus is that AI could achieve system-level change in approximately 15 years. This acceleration is due to AI’s ability to build on existing digital infrastructures and the exponential pace of innovation today. However, realizing this potential requires addressing critical barriers, such as regulatory challenges, ethical considerations, and the readiness of support structures.
Originally published at http://frankdiana.net on December 11, 2024.
