It has been my desire to tell stories; to paint pictures of possible futures. Any story-teller would marvel at the amount of possible futures evolving from the current crisis. I have been a fan of the book the Fourth Turning because of the compelling journey through history that the book takes you on. Stories of crisis that emerged every 80 to 100 years like clockwork; and the reshaping of the social order that followed. It has been a little over 80 years since the last world altering crisis emerged. World War Two qualifies as an event that reshaped the social order when it was done.
Today, we can find stories about the post-pandemic future everywhere. There are points of view emerging for every domain; all signals to consider as we try to evaluate for ourselves what world emerges after the crisis has passed. I am pulling this together using my implications and response framework, but in the meantime, I will continue to curate relevant content.
GLOBALIZATION AND LEADERSHIP
Yuval Noah Harari is a historian, philosopher and the bestselling author of Sapiens, Homo Deus and 21 Lessons for the 21st Century. He has spent considerable time painting pictures of possible futures emerging from the world of science and technology. These pictures can be scary, describing a world that emerges if left to its own devices. In a recent Article, Mr. Harari gives a counter-argument to the anti-globalization sentiment that is sure to grow deeper as a result of this crisis. In the most simple of terms, he stresses that the real antidote to epidemic is not segregation, but rather cooperation. As he takes a journey through the pandemics of the past, he looks for something that is missing today: global leadership.
In this Article focused on the energy dynamic that emerges post-pandemic, the author states that coronavirus is likely to change the market dynamics of the various types of energy in favour of renewables such as wind, solar and hydropower. The argument stems from the fact that the crisis has brought radical change to the oil and gas industry, while the cost of capital is at record lows. With billions of dollars of stimulus spending looking for a home, renewables should be able to capture an increasing share of this investment.
In this Article, billionaire mall owner Rick Caruso tells CNBC that Retailers will need to respond to a really significant shift in consumer behavior as a result of the coronavirus crisis. Caruso said he thought consumers may want more space when the pandemic subsides. He believes the winners are going to be very connected, curated, personalized, and feel more local.
In this Article, the author posits that the service industries may be changed forever after virus fades. The industry — which accounts for 84% of U.S. private-sector employment — has never had a crisis where we couldn’t socially gather with people. The virus has impacted businesses that depend on social gatherings — restaurants, cinemas, theaters, hotels, airlines, gyms, shopping centers, etc. Social distancing likely leads to a growth in online shopping and grab-and-go dining. The article predicts that local governments will reduce restaurant seating capacity to keep diners from being on top of each other.
In this Article, something as simple as cash is likely to change as a result of the crisis. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) says they will undoubtedly pursue a digital Yuan. While the initiative is a few years old, it may have added impetus from coronavirus-related concerns about physical banknotes. At a Feb. 15 press conference, the central bank said it would disinfect and store cash for seven to 14 days before it takes it in, and put 600 billion yuan of new cash in circulation.
As if we didn’t have enough Dots to Connect, this pandemic has introduced more uncertainty and complexity. As I have in every virus-related post, I’m providing links to previous posts.
Mid-Pandemic Impact on Supply Chains
Post COVID-19 Economic Recovery Scenarios
Is The Canary Dead?
A Post Pandemic Society
How Will The Corona Virus Impact Globalization?
The Corona Virus Serves As A Catalyst For Change
Post COVID-19 Economic Recovery Scenarios
COVID-19 Monday Morning News
Anatomy Of An Outbreak
Discussing A Post-Pandemic Society on Salem Radio Network
The COVID-19 Economic Impact On China and a Glimpse Of The Future
Assessing A Post Pandemic Future: A Video
Coronavirus: Permanent Change? 34 Big Thinkers Explore the Possibilities
Futurist Gerd Leonhard Looks Back From The Near Future
Originally published at http://frankdiana.net on April 7, 2020.