Falling Birth Rates

Frank Diana
2 min readJun 4, 2024

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In a 2022 Post I described a societal signal that represents a global phenomenon. A decline in fertility rates has wide ranging implications, introducing an area of uncertainty that ripples across multiple scenarios. The societal piece of the convergence framework is massively impactful, with fertility being just one of multiple forces. A recent article decribes this global trend of declining fertility rates.

The data from the UN World Population Prospects (2022) compiled by Our World in Data shows a consistent decrease in birth rates across the six most populated countries. Notably, China has experienced the fastest decline, which could lead to similar challenges as seen in Japan with an aging population and significant socio-economic implications. This decline in fertility rates underscores the broader global pattern, where the average number of births per woman has decreased from 3.2 in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019, with an expected further decline to 2.2 births by 2050. This visual from the article plots the trajectory. The chart below provides a different view.

Originally published at http://frankdiana.net on June 4, 2024.

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Frank Diana

TCS Executive focused on the rapid evolution of society and business. Fascinated by the view of the world in the next decade and beyond https://frankdiana.net/