Book Review: Technology And The Rise of Great Powers By Jeffrey Ding

In an era obsessed with technological “firsts,” Jeffrey Ding’s Technology and the Rise of Great Powers delivers a counterintuitive revelation: the nations that dominate the future won’t necessarily be those that invent the most, but rather those that diffuse innovations the fastest. By shifting the spotlight from invention to diffusion, Ding fundamentally reframes the debate on global competitiveness — with profound implications for policymakers, businesses, and societies.

Defining General Purpose Technologies

Ding’s analysis hinges on the diffusion of General Purpose Technologies, foundational innovations such as steam power, electricity, and digital computing, that fundamentally reshape economies by driving productivity gains across multiple sectors. These transformative technologies not only enhance efficiency but catalyze entirely new industries and economic paradigms. Ding argues persuasively that a nation’s true competitive advantage stems not from invention alone, but from the capacity to quickly and effectively scale these technologies throughout its economy, institutions, and society.

History’s Lesson: Diffusion Drives Leadership

Ding’s argument rests on a clear historical pattern: great power status has rarely been decided by invention alone, but rather by the systemic diffusion of General Purpose Technologies. During the First Industrial Revolution, Britain’s ascent was driven not simply by landmark inventions like the steam engine, nor solely by its initial dominance in leading sectors like cotton textiles. Rather, Britain’s true advantage emerged from its exceptional ability to diffuse iron machinery across diverse economic activities. Advances such as Henry Cort’s puddling process dramatically expanded the nation’s capacity to produce affordable, high-quality iron, fueling the proliferation of machinery and enabling widespread adoption of industrial methods in numerous sectors beyond textiles alone. Complemented by targeted investments in practical education and skill development, Britain cultivated a workforce uniquely adept at operating, maintaining, and continually improving these technologies, cementing its global economic leadership.

The Second Industrial Revolution reinforced this diffusion-driven pattern. Contrary to the assumption that industrial dominance required leading-edge scientific infrastructure or advanced industrial R&D capabilities, the United States surpassed its industrial rivals largely by institutionalizing mechanisms that accelerated the widespread adoption of special-purpose machinery. America achieved this through strategic adaptations in educational and professional structures: a rapid expansion of technical higher education, specialized engineering institutions, and the professionalization of mechanical engineering widened the nation’s talent base significantly. Moreover, standardized interchangeable parts and assembly-line techniques transformed manufacturing efficiency. Together, these institutional innovations created a robust ecosystem capable of diffusing transformative technologies like electricity and mechanized production across virtually all sectors of the economy.

Further underscoring the importance of diffusion, Ding highlights the late-20th century competition between the United States and Japan. Japan’s rapid capture of global market shares in consumer electronics and semiconductors prompted widespread predictions of an imminent economic power transition. However, this expected transition never materialized, precisely because the United States excelled in broadly diffusing computerization throughout its economy. Rather than relying on dominance within a few leading sectors, America’s advantage lay in its widespread adoption and integration of computing technology across numerous industries, enabling sustained economic growth and productivity gains beyond narrowly defined technology sectors.

These historical examples collectively underscore Ding’s central thesis: sustained technological leadership is less about isolated innovations or dominance in specific industries and far more about systemic capabilities — robust institutions, broad educational investments, and policies fostering widespread diffusion of general-purpose technologies.

Dismantling the Threat-Based Myth

Ding dismantles a dangerous myth: that technological leadership is won primarily through geopolitical rivalry and military competition. While U.S.-China tensions dominate current headlines, true long-term advantage comes not from reactive competition, but from patient, strategic investments in education, workforce training, institutional adaptability, and interoperability standards. Genuine and sustainable leadership emerges not from headline-grabbing moonshots driven by external threats, but from consistent and often quieter foundational investments.

History reinforces this perspective. Sustained technological advantages rarely come from reactive, short-term initiatives alone. Instead, they arise from comprehensive preparation-building a robust diffusion infrastructure that can absorb, scale, and integrate innovations across society. Leaders must therefore shift their attention from short-term competitive posturing to these critical, foundational elements of technological diffusion.

Productivity as the True Measure of Impact

If diffusion is the engine of technological leadership, productivity is its fuel. Ding traces how each major technological revolution — from steam to silicon — delivered transformative economic gains only when paired with systemic changes in labor practices, infrastructure, education, and governance. Today’s emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, demand equally rigorous efforts to ensure widespread productivity gains.

However, this productivity-driven transformation brings significant social and ethical challenges, including workforce displacement and inequality. Leaders must proactively anticipate these disruptions, designing strategies to mitigate negative impacts and ensure inclusive benefits. Building adaptive educational systems, supportive social frameworks, and comprehensive diffusion infrastructure will be critical tasks in managing the complex transition ahead.

Beyond Industrial Revolutions?

While productivity remains central to Ding’s historical analysis, his work raises intriguing questions about the nature of our current moment: are we still within the framework of industrial revolutions, or are we experiencing something fundamentally different? The convergence of artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, and quantum computing suggests we may be moving beyond traditional industrial paradigms into a period of deeper, existential transformation. This idea will be explored further in an upcoming post, arguing that today’s technological shifts redefine not only productivity, but the very boundaries of life, intelligence, and human experience.

Conclusion: Diffusion Determines Destiny

Ultimately, Technology and the Rise of Great Powers leaves us with a clear lesson: in the race for technological supremacy, breakthroughs matter, but diffusion determines destiny. The nations best equipped to scale and integrate General Purpose Technologies into their economic and social systems will shape the coming century. By shifting our collective focus from merely inventing technologies to deliberately cultivating their broad-based diffusion, we can proactively rehearse the future, preparing strategies that maximize benefits and minimize disruptions.

Originally published at http://frankdiana.net on March 28, 2025.