Book Review: How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle By Ray Dalio

Ray Dalio has long been a student of cycles — economic, financial, and societal. His latest book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, is a sweeping examination of how nations rise, peak, and decline, often repeating the same mistakes across history. For anyone trying to make sense of today’s turbulent geopolitical and economic environment, Dalio’s work is both a warning and a guide.

At the heart of his thesis is the “big cycle” — a long-term pattern of debt accumulation, wealth inequality, internal conflict, external rivalry, and eventual restructuring. Dalio argues that while each era looks unique, the underlying drivers follow a rhythm that we can recognize if we study history deeply enough.

This perspective resonates with my own analysis of history. I often describe our current moment as one defined by pressure points and catalysts — demographic decline, technological acceleration, climate stress, and geopolitical realignment. Dalio’s big cycle is a parallel lens: it shows how these pressures interact with debt, productivity, and social cohesion to determine whether societies thrive or fracture.

What I appreciate most is Dalio’s attempt to ground the present in history. From the Dutch empire to the British and American centuries, he highlights the warning signs: declining competitiveness, rising internal conflict, eroding trust in institutions, and unsustainable financial engineering. These forces map directly onto some of the fracturing pressures points I’ve explored — such as loss of institutional trust or supply chain fragmentation.

But the book is not purely fatalistic. Dalio leaves room for agency: leaders, institutions, and societies can choose different paths if they recognize where they are in the cycle. That point connects strongly with the generative pressures points I focus on — innovations in technology, governance, and community that can bend the arc toward resilience rather than collapse.

Reading How Countries Go Broke in 2025 feels especially urgent. We are watching debt pile up, populism surge, geopolitical tensions intensify, and trust in systems erode. Dalio’s framework doesn’t just describe these dynamics — it contextualizes them, reminding us that others have walked this path before. The question is whether we can learn from history in time to avoid repeating it.

I’d recommend this book as a complement to our ongoing exploration of how possibilities unfold. Dalio provides a macroeconomic and historical anchor that enriches foresight conversations. As we explore plausible futures, Dalio illuminates the cycles underneath.

Verdict: Essential reading for anyone trying to navigate the intersection of economics, geopolitics, and societal change. I have added it to my Book Library.

Originally published at http://frankdiana.net on September 29, 2025.